Projected percent undercount during 2020 U.S. Census by risk scenario and ethnicity 2019

This statistic shows the projected percent undercount during the 2020 U.S. Census in 2019, by risk scenario and ethnicity. In 2019, it is projected that in a medium risk scenario, the 2020 U.S. Census will undercount Black people by 3.24 percent and undercount Hispanic/Latinx people by 2.84 percent.

Projected percent undercount during the 2020 U.S. Census in 2019, by risk scenario and ethnicity

Characteristic	Low	Medium	High
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Release date

June 2019

More information

Region

United States

Survey time period

2019

Supplementary notes

Undercounts are expressed as negatives and overcounts are expressed as positives.

A low risk scenario is considered by the source to be a 2020 Census that would be carried out with the same level of success and accuracy as the 2010 Census and that demographics have changed as expected.
A medium risk scenario is considered to be if the 2020 Census is executed as planned by the U.S. Census Bureau using parameters from the 2020 Census Operational Plan and a response rate of 60.5 percent.
A high risk scenario is considered to be if the 2020 Census performs below expectations with a response rate of 55.5 percent and the inclusion of the citizenship question.

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