Global warming experienced by population share by scenario 2018

This statistic presents the share of global population experiencing global warming based on various warming scenarios as of 2018. According to the source, under a average warming temperature of 3 degrees Celsius worldwide, six percent of the global population will actually experience an average warming temperature of 4 degrees Celsius.

Share of global population experiencing warming temperatures as of 2018, by scenario*

Scenario	Less than 1.5°C	Over 1.5°C	Over 2°C	Over 3°C	Over 4°C	Over 5°C	Over 6°C
RCP 8.5 (4.8°C)	-	-	-	14%	42%	37%	7%
RCP 6 (3.0°C)	-	-	37%	57%	6%	-	-
RCP 4.5 (2.7°C)	-	2%	72%	25%	1%	-	-
RCP 2.6 (1.7°C)	20%	66%	14%	-	-	-	-
Current day	84%	16%	-	-	-	-	-

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Release date

July 2018

More information

Region

Worldwide

Survey time period

2018

Supplementary notes

* Warming experienced by the global population at present day and in different future Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Based on 2020 projected population data from GPWv4 and CMIP5 multimodel mean warming between 1900-1920 and 2080-2100.

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