The next UK election - statistics & facts

The next UK general election is expected to take place some time in 2024, although it can be held as late as January 2025, with the decision of when to call one ultimately resting with the current Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak. Going into this election, the right-leaning Conservative Party will have been in power in the UK for more than 13 years, emerging as the largest party in the last four general elections. This long reign of dominance looks set to end soon however, with the Conservatives consistently behind the left-leaning Labour Party in recent polls by a significant margin. Furthermore, Sunak also trails the Labour party leader, Keir Starmer, in polls on who would be the better Prime Minister. The government's approval rating has also been in freefall since 2021, while a string of recent by-election losses for the Conservatives has reinforced the narrative that they are heading for defeat at the ballot box.

The main issues

At the start of 2023, two months after succeeding Liz Truss as Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak outlined five key priorities for the new year; halve inflation, grow the economy, reduce national debt, cut NHS waiting times, and stop irregular migration via small boats. These pledges reflected the main issues for many voters suffering through the worst cost of living crisis in a generation, as well as a National Health Service (NHS) struggling to cope with winter demand. Unfortunately for Sunak, the only pledge that was definitively fulfilled in 2023 was halving inflation. The CPI inflation rate fell from 10.1 percent in January 2023, to four percent by the end of the year, heavily influenced by falling energy prices . Despite inflation falling, economic growth has proven far harder to achieve, with the UK economy growing by just 0.1 percent in 2023. Even this weak economic growth was mainly due to economic growth at the start of the year. Going into 2024 the UK economy fell into a recession due to two consecutive quarters of negative growth in the third and fourth quarters of 2023. National debt, which has been high since the COVID-19 pandemic, increased slightly, although is forecast to fall gradually from the mid-2020s. NHS waiting times also did not fall in 2023, while the number of people entering the UK in small boats has fallen compared to 2022, but will likely still be higher than in previous years. The government's plan to deter irregular migration via this route is to send asylum applicants to Rwanda while their claims are being processed, a controversial policy that was even deemed unlawful by the UK supreme court in November. By the end of 2023 on all three of the main issues for voters; the economy, the NHS, and immigration, the Conservatives were seen as less competent than the Labour party.

What does the election mean for Brexit?

Although Brexit dominated the previous two general elections in the UK, it will likely play a smaller role in the 2024 election. Recent surveys suggest Britain leaving the EU has fallen down the list of priorities for most voters, especially in relation to health and the economy. Nevertheless, since Britain left the EU in 2020, a growing majority of voters believe Brexit was the wrong decision. What exactly the UK’s future relationship with the EU should be still divides Britons. Around one third wish to rejoin the EU, while ten percent want to just rejoin the single market. A further 30 percent want closer trading relations with the EU without joining the single market, and nine percent wanted to reduce ties with the EU further. Just ten percent were satisfied with the current state of affairs. Should Labour win the next election, they will likely seek to improve ties with the EU and build on the current deal, but are currently against rejoining the EU, Single Market, or Customs Union.

How do UK elections work?

While the United Kingdom is technically still a monarchy and also has an unelected upper-house in the form of the House of Lords, the true center of executive and legislative power lies in the House of Commons. The 650 Members of Parliament (MPs) that sit in the UK’s House of Commons represent 650 electoral areas called constituencies. Voters in the UK elect an MP for their constituency who will sit in parliament to stand for both local and national interests. Almost all MPs belong to political parties, the largest of which is the Conservative Party and the Labour Party. If one single party can win 326 or more seats in a general election, it will be able to form a government by virtue of having a simple majority in the House of Commons. The leader of the party who wins the most MPs usually goes on to become the Prime Minister, although these leaders must also win the constituency they represent, just like any other MP.
This text provides general information. Statista assumes no liability for the information given being complete or correct. Due to varying update cycles, statistics can display more up-to-date data than referenced in the text.
Published by Statista Research Department, Mar 21, 2024

Key insights

UK voting intention Feb 2024
Lab (46%) Con (21%)
Most important issue for voters
Economy (53%)
Share of people who approve of the government
15%
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