Presidential primary elections and caucuses in the U.S. - statistics & facts

In the United States, primary elections or caucuses are a vital precursor to the nation's presidential elections, ultimately dictating who each party will nominate for the presidential election. Occurring six to nine months beforehand, both primaries and caucuses operate by allocating delegates to candidates, with the process varying across states and political parties. While primary elections distribute delegates simply based on statewide voting outcomes, some states opt for caucuses, which involve local party meetings involving discussions, candidate support group formations, and formal voting. Delegates are then assigned based on caucus outcomes, with the selection process extending to regional, district, and state conventions, ultimately culminating in the national convention.

New Hampshire holds particular significance in the primary season, traditionally hosting the nation's inaugural primary election shortly after the Iowa caucus. The early timing of both the New Hampshire primaries and Iowa caucuses have rendered them pivotal battlegrounds for candidates vying for their party's nomination. Further into the primary calendar, Super Tuesday emerges as a pivotal moment, typically occurring on the first Tuesday of March during election years. It involves a substantial number of states holding their primary elections or caucuses simultaneously. Dubbed “Super Tuesday,” candidates strategically allocate resources to this day, as it holds the power to solidify their positions as front-runners and exerting influence over the nomination trajectory.

2024 Democratic primaries and caucuses

Presidential primaries within the sitting president’s party carry less weight compared to those in open-seat elections due to minimal opposition within their party. With widespread support from party members and leaders already secured, incumbent presidents hold considerable advantages in terms of fundraising, campaign infrastructure, and endorsements. Although many did not expect current President Joe Biden to run again as a result of increasing concern surrounding his age as well as consistently low approval ratings, he announced his intention to run for reelection in April 2023 and thus became the presumed Democratic nominee. However, in protest against the President's support for Israel's war against Hamas, more than 100,000 Michigan and 45,000 Minnesota Democrats cast "uncommitted" votes in their primary elections, earning a total of six delegates. Additionally, amid a dispute over the Democratic Party's primary calendar, President Biden's name did not appear on the New Hampshire primary ballot. Nevertheless, Biden managed to secure around 64 percent of votes as a write-in candidate.

2024 Republican primaries and caucuses

The Republican Party’s Iowa Caucuses were held on January 15, 2024. Exit polls showed former President Donald Trump with a significant lead, receiving more than half of the total votes. While this year’s Republican primaries and caucuses have remained relatively unsurprising considering Donald Trump’s drastic lead, the New Hampshire race was expected to be a close race between Trump and Haley. Nevertheless, Trump came out ahead of the former South Carolina Governor by around 11 percentage points. From the onset of her campaign, Haley has been running on an anti-Trump platform in an attempt to amass support from Republicans dissatisfied with the divisive nature of the Trump Administration. The former South Carolina Governor was adamant about remaining in the race through Super Tuesday. However, Trump's final competitor dropped outafter a decisive Super Tuesday victory, making Trump the presumptive Republican nominee for the general election.

Trump’s presidential eligibility

In December 2023, the Colorado Supreme Court declared that Donald Trump would be removed from the state's presidential primary ballot, citing Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. Former president Trump's role in the events on January 6th, 2021 remains an extremely debated topic among Americans. As of early January 2024, Colorado and Maine have announced that Trump would not be on the primary ballots. Due to the nature of the electoral system, neither state is critical for Trump to gain reelection in 2024. In response to Colorado's ruling, attorneys general from 27 U.S. states filed a brief with the United States Supreme Court in an attempt to reject the ruling. The Supreme Court agreed to hear the case, which took place on February 8, 2024. Although the ruling has yet to be determined, many have anticipated the court's decision will favor the former president on account of the Supreme Court's conservative majority.
This text provides general information. Statista assumes no liability for the information given being complete or correct. Due to varying update cycles, statistics can display more up-to-date data than referenced in the text.
Published by Statista Research Department, Mar 7, 2024

Key insights

Share of votes for Trump in the 2024 New Hampshire Republican primary
54%
Share of women who voted for Haley in the 2024 New Hampshire Republican primary
47%
Final vote count for Trump in the 2024 Republican Iowa caucus
56,260
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