Wine - Uganda

The Wine market in Uganda has been experiencing significant growth in recent years, driven by changing customer preferences and local special circumstances.

Customer preferences: Uganda has traditionally been a market dominated by beer and spirits consumption. However, there has been a noticeable shift in customer preferences towards wine in recent years. This can be attributed to several factors, including changing lifestyles, increased exposure to international cultures, and a growing middle class with higher disposable incomes. Wine is seen as a more sophisticated and healthier alternative to other alcoholic beverages, and consumers are increasingly opting for it during social gatherings and special occasions.

Trends in the market: One of the key trends in the wine market in Uganda is the increasing demand for imported wines. Ugandan consumers are becoming more knowledgeable about different wine varieties and are seeking out high-quality products from renowned wine-producing regions such as France, Italy, and South Africa. This trend is also driven by the growing number of wine bars and restaurants that offer a wide selection of international wines, catering to the evolving tastes of the urban population. Another trend in the market is the rise of domestic wine production. While Uganda is not traditionally known for wine production, there has been a growing interest in local winemaking. This can be attributed to the availability of suitable climate and soil conditions in certain regions of the country, as well as government support for agricultural development. Local wineries are emerging and producing wines made from fruits such as grapes, bananas, and pineapples, offering consumers a unique and locally sourced alternative.

Local special circumstances: Uganda's wine market is also influenced by local special circumstances. One of these is the country's cultural and religious diversity. Uganda is home to a mix of ethnic groups and religions, some of which have specific dietary restrictions. Wine, being a permissible alcoholic beverage in many religious traditions, has gained popularity among these communities as a drink of choice for celebrations and religious ceremonies. Another special circumstance is the growing tourism industry in Uganda. The country is known for its natural beauty, wildlife, and adventure tourism, attracting a significant number of international visitors. These tourists often have a preference for wine, and this has contributed to the growth of wine consumption in hotels, lodges, and restaurants catering to the tourism sector.

Underlying macroeconomic factors: The growth of the wine market in Uganda is also influenced by underlying macroeconomic factors. The country has been experiencing steady economic growth in recent years, leading to an increase in disposable incomes and a rising middle class. This has resulted in higher purchasing power and a greater willingness to spend on luxury and premium products such as wine. Furthermore, the government's efforts to improve infrastructure and promote investment have created a conducive business environment for wine importers and local wineries. This has facilitated the growth of the wine market by ensuring efficient distribution channels and access to a wider range of wine options. In conclusion, the wine market in Uganda is developing due to changing customer preferences, including a shift towards imported wines and an emerging interest in domestic wine production. Local special circumstances, such as cultural diversity and the growing tourism industry, also contribute to the market's growth. Underlying macroeconomic factors, including steady economic growth and government support, further drive the expansion of the wine market in Uganda.

Data coverage:
The data encompasses B2C enterprises. The at-home market covers retail sales via super- and hypermarkets, eCommerce, convenience stores, or similar sales channels. The out-of-home data encompasses all sales to hotels, restaurants, catering, cafés, bars, and similar hospitality service establishments. Combined numbers encompass both the at-home market and the out-of-home market. Both the at-home and the out-of-home market are valued at retail selling prices including all sales and consumption taxes.

Modeling approach:
Market sizes are determined through a Top-Down approach, building on specific predefined factors for each market segment. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use resources from the Statista platform as well as in-house market research, national statistical offices, international institutions, trade associations, companies, the trade press, and the experience of our analysts. In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as GDP, consumer spending (e.g. consumer spending on alcoholic beverages, consumer spending at Hotels, Restaurants etc.), and price level index. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:
In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market. For example, the exponential trend smoothing is well suited for forecasting the Alcoholic Drinks market with a projected steady growth. The main drivers are GDP per capita and consumer spending per capita.

Additional notes:
The data is modeled using current exchange rates. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war are considered at a country-specific level.