GHG emissions projections in the UK by scenario 2023

Under the current policies and actions, and in an optimistic scenario, GHG emissions in the UK were forecast to fall to 288 MtCO₂e by 2034. This decrease is considered to be insufficient if the target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius is to be achieved. In a scenario compatible with the 1.5 degrees Celsius target, UK emissions would need to reach 181 MtCO₂e by 2034.

GHG emissions in the United Kingdom in 2021 and 2022, and projections from 2023 to 2034, by scenario (in million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent)

Characteristic	Current policies and actions (Min)	Current policies and actions (Max)	1.5°C compatible	Almost sufficient	Insufficient	Highly insufficient
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Release date

September 2023

More information

Region

United Kingdom

Survey time period

2023

Special properties

Excluding LULUCF

Supplementary notes

The source gives the following explanation to the scenarios' levels:
If all countries followed the rated country’s approach, warming could be held below—but not well below—2°C for the “Almost sufficient” category. For the “Insufficient” category, the range is 2°C to 3°C, for the “Highly Insufficient” 3°C to 4°C, and for “Critically insufficient” above 4°C. Given that the overall rating is an aggregate of different elements, we do not provide a warming range for it.

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